The Futures Of The Human Race
A book by Michael Godfrey Bell

HOME | AUTHOR | PRAISE | FREE DOWNLOAD | TABLE OF CONTENTS


BOOK TWO: NEW HUMAN BEINGS,
2020 - 2060

Chapter Nine: The Future Of Language And Other Cultural Artefacts

 

 

Introduction

Language

Parenting And Education

Sport

Newspapers, Television and the Movies

The Internet

The Arts

Religion

Politics

 

 

Introduction

Chapter Two made the point that culture, meaning the set of behaviours and psychological attitudes that distinguish humans from each other is strongly influenced by a person's societal environment, and for the last 200 years that has meant a heavy influence from whatever nation state an individual inhabited.

It was suggested - what is obvious - that the process of globalization is tending to blur cultural differences, but that language, or rather languages in their variety slow that process since they are the bedrock of culture. However, as people increasingly feel themselves in a global context, rather than on a national stage, so will culture become global rather than national.

Chapter Two also introduced the idea that for most of human history culture has been a product - even to some extent perhaps a by-product - of the 'groupish' way of life that evolution dictated as the route towards species supremacy. The nation state was characterized as a pathological manifestation of groupishness. Even though it had its role in the development of the modern world, it has led to the destruction of the folkways, the group-based principles upon which people had based their cultures ever since they stood up and started to talk to each other. Chapter Two showed how many of the contributing facets of culture will be affected by the process of globalization in the next century, and how that process may result in a return to more 'groupish' ways of living as the nation state fades from its pole position in the consciousness of the individual.

In an attempt to understand and predict what may happen to human society in the 21st century and beyond, it is instructive to examine the features of society that inculcate and form (inform) culture in individuals.

A list of the more important of these might run as follows:

Language

Parenting and Education

Sport

Newspapers, television and the movies

The Internet

The arts

Religion

Politics

Language

The probable future of language was discussed in Chapter Two. At the present stage of brain research, it's not possible to be sure whether language is simply an interface, or whether it is involved in the storage of absolute meaning. If the former, children will learn to communicate via implanted bio-electronic devices, and language, perhaps some form of highly stylized English, will be used only as a store of historical information. Even that may not be necessary: if machines come to imitate the workings of the human brain (something that is explored in Chapter Twelve) then they could presumably imitate the non-linguistic storage of concepts and syntax as easily as they will shortly be able to imitate language itself.

Most people, however, probably think that at least some types of meaning are stored in linguistic form. There may be a distinction between words which can be (and are) represented by non-linguistic cognitive contents, and words which cannot, corresponding to the distinction between concepts which predated symbolic language (eg the concept of a hill) which are adequately represented in images, and symbolic linguistic concepts such as names, the description of time etc, which are understood badly if at all other than through words. It is interesting that writers on consciousness have tended to see names, time words and other culturally advanced linguistic representations as having arrived very late on, as recently perhaps as the dawn of recorded history, for which indeed they are a necessary and perhaps sufficient condition.

A compound word such as the Acropolis carries within itself both the concept of a hill, presumed to be stored as an image, and the name 'Acropolis', which is stored in a lexicon. What we don't yet know is whether that name storage is in some way photographic, or whether via reference to phonemes, or by some other as yet undescribed storage method. Quite possibly it would be by a mixture of all of these.

The brain is rather amazing at storing linguistic concepts, whatever the method employed; but it has limitations, particularly for older people. There will be no need in future, however, to be limited by the brain's current lexical capacity; a complete set of currently used linguistic concepts and symbols can be contained in a bio-electronic or purely electronic lexicon which would be available to all individuals (either external or implanted). This would represent an extension of consciousness: not just Tower Hill and the Acropolis, but lots of other hills as well would be available in the lexicon. Hills already assimilated into a person's psyche would be tagged as such; other hills would have contextual/keyword tags and would be available as needed.

The types of word for which separate storage is needed in the brain are probably those which might as well be the same in all languages. 'Hour' or 'mercy' don't seem to carry a lot of separate national or other cultural significance. Interestingly, though, it is quite hard to think of a name-word which doesn't have extraneous resonances for particular cultures; think of 'Thatcher', 'Orinoco', 'Sahara', 'Rome' or 'Sirius'.

If linguistic forms are necessary to the creation and expression of at least some types of conceptual ideas, then language will remain in use. Different languages will not have a purpose in most adult communication because of the ease of machine translation between different languages; but it would still be necessary for children to learn a language, simply to develop their 'acquis humanitaire'. It's a presumably unpopular conclusion that different languages might not remain in use. Without adult need for language, what would be the purpose of having more than one language?

But then there is poetry, and literature and song. Despite all the difficulties of interpretation after four thousand years we still go to Greek plays. On the other hand we don't dance around the may-pole or sacrifice goats.

Perhaps what is to be expected is a prolonged period in which language-based cultures are preserved for speakers of individual languages, while every-day social and business affairs are conducted via translation devices, and new forms are developed to contain, communicate and propagate artistic and philosophical content in which linguistic forms play a lesser role. Such forms are described in Chapter Twelve. Eventually, however, spoken language as we know it will probably disappear, and there will of course be no need for written language once direct 'brain to computer' communication is established, even if some types of word remain in use in the human cognitive space. The time-scale is perhaps 1/200 years; maybe less.

Turning back to culture, it is to be expected that the 'langue maternelle' sort of culture - nursery rhymes and so on - would persist in its variegated hues for some time to come, but that grown-up culture, in so far as it is delivered via language, will become subject to globalization tendencies, at least in the mainstream of human affairs.

Technology which enables at least partially non-linguistic cognitive communication between groups of individuals - described in Chapter 12 onwards - is likely to play an increasing role in human affairs from the middle of the 21st century onwards, and while it will enormously increase the depth and variety of inter-personal communication will usher in a further lessening of the role of language in our society.

Parenting And Education

It is one of the most often lamented features of the last 100 years that 'the family has broken down'. This breakdown - which is measurable and universal in more economically advanced countries - is blamed for a variety of society's ills, alongside the rise of the nation state. It might be fairer to say, alongside the rise of dirigiste, socialist, nanny-type nation states, which have indeed tended to weaken family responsibilities as part of a general hollowing-out of individual social and moral responsibility.

The Bolsheviks tried to replace suspect family acculturation with a state equivalent. That failed dismally. Lack of adequate family acculturation is widely and no doubt correctly blamed for anti-social and criminal behaviour among the young.

Economic factors will continue to drive families apart for the foreseeable future, and as much as the Internet will tend to reinforce groupishness among people, and is clearly reigniting interest in the kin-group, it's not clear that it can help early socialization in a kin-group setting, at least not until advances in bio-electronic technology allow the participation of individuals in a shared cognitive space.

There is a good side to the atomization of families, though. Young people thrown on their own resources by separation from their families (often at first by going to university, increasingly in a foreign country) are more open to cultural challenge and innovation than if they had remained at home. Here the Internet clearly does have a part to play; indeed it may be the crowbar that is needed to unblock the rusty conservatism of the educational process in general.

It would not be right to say that school primary and secondary education (firmly in the grip of nation states, after all) has played a major role in the cultural expansion we have witnessed in the last 50 years. Curriculae are woefully archaic, and teachers unions are a highly conservative force in cultural terms.

Education - or the lack of it - may be one of the greatest failures of the nation state. It has to be expected that monopolies (and education, until very recently, has been exactly that in most nation states) will fail to deliver the goods that are required, and governments are the least likely type of organization to understand the problem, being monopolies themselves.

Choice in education is what the customer (the parent) wants, and seldom gets. This is not going to change quickly, although there are some hopeful signs, such as the International Schools Movement, which was described in Chapter Two. Countries will cling to their (often nationalistic) teaching models for as long as possible, and there is not much help to be expected from international organizations. Human rights unfortunately don't yet extend to the child: when teachers or parents are ignorant or bigoted they still seemingly have a divine right to limit and distort childrens' psyches.

Still, it will happen eventually, in a top-down kind of way, beginning with tertiary and adult education, where customer-led change is already well under way, and moving down the age groups. The Internet, of course, will play a major role in this process. Already it forms a means of delivery of alternative cultural content into schools. Teachers can be lazy like the rest of us, and will readily accept well-packaged educational content for direct delivery to their classes, once the desk-top computer is a standard feature of classrooms. That day may not be too far off, at least in richer countries.

Schools badly need to change. It is just about unbelievable that in most countries children of mixed abilities and even ages still sit in rows in ugly, uncomfortable classrooms listening to bored or boring teachers, subject to racial or sexual harassment and bullying. It is no wonder that the kids spend most of their time texting each other.

As in so many other spheres, it will surely be the Internet that breaks the mould. Once there is competition between providers of, say, basic mathematical courses on the Internet, the school may become just an enabling institution. In fact, it is hard to see why schools would need to exist at all in their current, wildly expensive and ineffectual form. Groups of parents could take over supervision in private user groups or could hire teachers to supervise ad hoc groups of matched children in a wide variety of educational environments (all those useless libraries, for instance).

A teacher combines a number of functions, most of which can be provided more efficiently and more cheaply by the Internet - including the setting of tasks, the explaining of concepts, the setting of examinations, the marking of them and of course-work, the comparison of achievement against one's peers and against absolute standards. The remaining roles of the teacher - to supervize, to discipline, to amuse and to motivate - can be provided in a variety of formats, robotic teachers included. Robots with human cognitive attributes are clearly going to exist within a very few years.

Some of these possibilities could be explored now, but they are obscured by the existence of private schooling in rich countries, and the hidebound nature of the state educational systems and their practitioners and their unions. If the boundaries were abolished, new variants would spring up. Already, even at state schools, after lessons, parents spend the rest of the day carting their children around between ballet classes, extra maths etc.

While deconstruction of the existing educational process (a recent invention, anyway, since education was provided very effectively without the State's help until the 19th century) is almost certainly a good thing, there would always be merit is having some communal classes in order to develop groupish skills, but they could be exactly that - socialization classes.

It is a reasonable assumption that international norms will develop for the educational process, both in terms of curriculae and methodology. The beginnings of this process can be seen in the International Schools Movement, and it will be pushed along by the Internet, together with the dissolution of language barriers, which will accelerate with the advent of effective machine translation, beginning in the 2020s.

Sport

Here we are on firmer ground. The extent of globalization of rule-making and dispute resolution in sport was described in Chapter Two; this process can only continue.

National allegiances and stereotypes certainly persist, but sport has already become international, thanks to television. Certain sports will continue to bulk large in national self-images and national culture, as for instance football (for all countries) and cricket (for the British Commonwealth), but even there internationalization is creeping in. Many of the superstars of British football are foreigners - French, Spanish, Italian, Russian, Brazilian. Several major British football clubs are owned by foreigners, indeed many more are publicly listed and open to foreign takeover. What would you say about the place of football in the cultural make-up of a Chelsea fan, whose club is owned by a Russian billionaire, managed by a Spaniard and fields a majority of non-British players?

The process has gone further in sports such as tennis, whose leading personalities have become more or less detached from their nationality. Fans of Maria Sharapova or Roger Federer support their heroes not because of nationality, either their own or the player's. Tennis, by the way, is played and watched predominantly in English. Almost all tennis stars can speak the language, and they all have English-language web-sites, which in some cases are major businesses in their own right.

It is true that the Davis Cup continues to focus national rivalries, but it is a sideshow in terms of television coverage, money, or cultural impact. As with tennis, so also with motor racing, winter sports, wrestling, golf, and a host of other televisual sports. They are all star-based sports, and often seem more part of the entertainment industry than true sports. (What is a true sport?) Definitely they are part of a cultural mosaic which has an increasingly global tinge.

The Olympic Games are of course firmly based on national competition, and this will not change soon. However, sporting stars also compete at the Olympics and attract as much media attention as national teams. Long-term, it would not be surprising to see the element of individual competition elbowing out national competition even at the Olympics. Certainly this will happen in terms of media coverage and cultural footprint even if the Olympic organization itself continues to cling to national boundaries.

Sporting fan-clubs are a prime example of the role played by the Internet in fostering globalization in a groupish kind of way. Certainly, there are still some sports with a high level of national or regional awareness, of which football must be the leading example. But even in football, stars such as David Beckham have their international fan-clubs, largely operated through the Internet, whose members would presumably stay about the same as the hero concerned moves club or country. Imagine a group of Schumacher's fans, from a number of different countries, gathering in a bar after a Formula One race in - say - Italy. Of course they will talk in English, perhaps with a smattering of other language words. What could be more groupish, more globalized, or less national?

Newspapers, Television and the Movies

For an adult, 'the media' is probably the main channel through which culture is reinforced, absorbed and varied. Language forms the greater part of this cultural input, and much of what was said above about language also applies to the future of the media. That is to say, linguistic translation devices will have a major impact on the form and content of media communication. This will manifest itself in television and the movies (and their delivery through the Internet) before it affects printed newspapers.

By 2040, it seems unlikely that there will be any further use for devices or auditoria that have screens to display graphical images or for loudspeakers to replay sounds. Images and sounds (and for that matter tastes, feelings and smells) will be delivered directly to the brain's sensory input channels by wireless, magnetism or through bionic implants. This does not spell immediate doom for the movie industry. Cinemas have already converted themselves to offer entertainment experiences rather than just movies as such. And how wonderful to be able to take your foreign boy- or girl-friend to a movie and enjoy the experience in your own native languages (from 2020 or so when machine language translation has been perfected). There will presumably be a long period between say 2015 and 2040 during which the entertainment industry will gradually adapt its products and delivery methods to the oncoming technologies described in this and succeeding chapters.

On the Internet, there may be an intermediate stage in which content is displayed in a language chosen by the user. At home, hybrid televisual/internet systems may similarly use local electronics to display and voice content in an appropriate language. No more clumsy voice-overs or dubbing!

As to whether the content itself will be national or global: that depends on the future of national languages. National movie and television industries are heavily protected and supported by governments through tax-breaks and cultural barriers and this will surely continue to be so as long as separate national languages persist. Multi-country or regional television channels exist courtesy of multi-country languages, viz Al Jazheera, CNN or the BBC World Service. There are French and Spanish equivalents. News dissemination in the European Union is a 20-language nightmare.

As explained above, however, by 2030 national languages will be starting to give way before the assault of instant machine translation, and this will be the signal for the growing globalization of everyday experience in terms of sport, business, the arts and politics to be reflected in linguistic expression. By 2050 it is likely that a high proportion of linguistic media content will be created in English (but experienced in native languages). By 2100, it is likely, as explained in the Language paragraphs above, that language will have become redundant for most types of human expression; or, if it turns out that brains do require words to form and experience certain types of concept, that a common language will be in use for those few concepts that cannot be expressed or communicated as imagined images. Stores of historical data will remain in linguistic form, of course, and researchers will use language to study them. It is also possible that great literature and plays will continue to be experienced in legacy linguistic form; as mentioned above, this depends on whether or not their essence turns out to be communicable without the use of words.

It's pretty certain that the word 'hill' will have been substituted in movies by a non-linguistic representation of a hill, infinitely more shaded and meaningful than the word itself. Try imagining a hill, green perhaps, with sheep dotted around, a few copses clinging to the steeper ravines, and swallows wheeling overhead. Now, be honest, do you really need words to describe that to yourself? Why then would you need words to communicate it to a fellow human being, once the mechanisms of expression and communication have been understood? On the other hand, it is not so easy to form a picture of love. Perhaps one could communicate the feeling of love without words, even so. But then try imagining (imaging) mercy. You might be able to picture an example of mercy, but the concept? It is not exactly a feeling as such. So maybe there will be a residual use for conceptual linguistic symbols - evolutionary biologists now suppose that it was the invention of symbolic thought (not just words) that marked the great cognitive leap forward for early humans.

Naturally, developments in the machine (electronic) representation of human thoughts, concepts, emotions and symbols are a key part of the construction of adequate robotic devices. This subject is dealt with in Chapter Thirteen.

Newspapers and magazines are the spiritual home of national print languages and as long as a language continues to be learned and used in a country, newspapers will survive in that language. The extinction of newspapers at the hands of the Internet is frequently prophesied; they are expensive to produce, dirty to handle, bulky and carry much material that is redundant for any given reader. But all this is outweighed by their convenience. It will not be until national languages are supplanted by non-linguistic communication, or the development of a common language, that newspapers will disappear, although paper as such may be supplanted by an electronic version of itself by as early as 2020. Between 2050 and 2080, however, as effective direct delivery of cognitive content begins to bypass visual and auditory sensory channels, they will fade away, and by 2100 they will have gone, along with all paper or non-electronic representations of media content. But you don't need to sell those shares just yet!

Another characteristic of existing media which can be expected to change rapidly is that they are typically highly standardized. Movies, books and television programs are mass-market products. This is partly a result of technological limitations, and partly a reflection of mass cultural similarities, in which of course national self-stereotypes play a large role. It will be clear from previous chapters that globalization and the Internet will combine to offer individuals access to a far wider range of cultural possibilities than most people currently experience, leading to an explosion - already visible and already remarked upon - of 'niche' interests which can be served by new forms of media using sophisticated content management and distribution techniques. Needless to say, this is a highly 'groupish' phenomenon: when say 50 people can not only identify a common set of interests even when they have never met before, but can readily and cheaply obtain media feeds of various types accurately tailored to that set of interests, it is evident that the old model of standardized content and distribution will quickly die. This new type of medium can already be seen in operation, although so far in fairly primitive form, on sites such as Google.

The Internet

Much of what needs to be said regarding the cultural impact of the Internet is implicit in what has already been written about language and the media.

Just because the Internet already uses electronic representations of linguistic and non-linguistic content (before laboriously turning it back into words and pictures) it will be the leader in the use of new forms of representation of human cultural products; and just because the Internet was from the beginning global, it will most always be the first place that globalized cultural expression will show itself.

However, at least until non-linguistic communication becomes a reality, the Internet is as bound as any other medium by national languages.

Other than in the use of language, the Internet is already in the vanguard of the globalization of sport, education, the law, business, the arts, ethics, life-style, etc etc. But, importantly, as remarked before, the Internet allows and encourages minority interests and groups just as much or even more than it encourages 'global' cultural expression.

Just one, slightly macabre example, to illustrate this. When checking on the 'groupishness' of the Internet, that is, making sure that it does encourage the expression of the human tendency to affiliate, a search was done on the word 'rus' as in toysRus and so on. Immediately up came stumps 'R us and, no, it's not a cricketing group, it's amputees!!

The Arts

This is a big field, including music, dance, song, painting, poetry, literature, plays and film, as well as combinations of them and possibly newer types of creative communication. Language, with all the implications sketched out above, is involved in song, poetry, plays and film. The other arts are more or less language-independent.

Language-dependent or otherwise, most art forms are quite tied to the nation state at present. There is not much danger that an Impressionist picture of Paris will be mistaken for a Social Realist townscape in Siberia, or a Mexican bodega painted by Diego Rivera. But that is perhaps mostly because the subject matter is national in character. Stylistically, impressionism was more or less the same everywhere, with some time lags, as in music, the forms of musical composition tended to vary just about in step across a wide swathe of countries (cultures). There is nothing 'national' about the string quartet, even if it did originate in Austro-Hungary. Composers from all countries have used that form, and still do, although it is a bit out of fashion at the moment among composers. The same goes for popular culture and fashion. Styles have always crossed national boundaries. Indeed, that is just one more proof that it is language, and the nation states which made it into their competitive banner, which is to blame for the antagonism of different linguistically-based cultures.

It is significant that the best writers are widely translated - always said to be 'universal' - Shakespeare and Dostoevsky for example. Where is national culture in this?

The arts are perhaps more a reflection of cultural norms than a cause of them. If national languages remain, they will be expressed through the arts; if a common language develops, likewise. Images are less tied to nation states; or at any rate they can be understood widely even if they are national in character. An image of the destruction of the World Trade Center in New York in 2001 may cause different reactions in different people; but its objective reality is crystal clear to almost everyone on the planet. Everyone who watches television, that is.

In so far as the arts reflect the reality of the world as it is, they have already become globalized, through images such as those of the twin towers, and millions of other, less terrible happenings. That means, surely, that the image library in people's heads has already become globalized? A high proportion of people from almost all nations and cultures has seen the Berlin Wall being knocked down, the Titanic sinking (real or imagined, it doesn't matter), a man walking on the moon, the Great Wall of China, a man and a woman riding horses on the beach, the tsunami, cherry trees in Washington, a Russian spy dying of radiation poisoning, baby seals, the World Cup (there is only one!). This list of universal images could be 1,000 times as long, and you would still have barely started cataloguing the shared picture library of human beings. It is already globalized, and will not be turned back.

The existence of a common (globalized) library of images, cognitive concepts and cultural 'memes' implies the possibility, as mentioned above under The Media, that small niche groups can form on a globalized basis. That has always been possible on a national or local scale. Although held back by communication limitations, there are of course such groups in existence as the The Friends of Battle Arts Festival, the Rome Operatic and Dramatic Society, Nevada, and the Omsk Association of Balalaika Players. There would seem to be no limits, through the Internet, of the scope for formation of a bewildering number of affiliations of this type, especially when language ceases to be a barrier.

Religion

What is the globalization of religion? Does it mean the globalization of ethical structures? That is happening through globalized rule-making bodies such as FIFA, the WTO and alternative reality worlds, which tend to follow strictly groupish models.

Culturally speaking, religions are dead meat in 'Western' countries. It doesn't look this way in the USA; but this is just a 'lost generation' looking for spiritual sustenance in a morally barren world. The urge to affiliate is so strong that people will do all kinds of nutty things like becoming scientologists or terrorists if they are not offered more satisfying alternatives. There weren't too many terrorists in 1400, since the media and public opinion, which are the proximate targets of terrorists, didn't exist. There were criminals, outlaws and roving bands of opportunistic soldiers, it's true, but most of them just didn't believe in anything, which is a different problem (we still have it). Goya. Actually, believing in nothing and believing in nutty religions are about the same - they are both responses to an ungrounded world.

In most non-'Western' countries, including of course Islamic states, religion retains its primary ethical significance; but this has to be seen as a corollary of the stage of development of the societies concerned, and is likely to change rapidly as the Internet and other types of media make inroads into popular education in such regions.

Although religion has lost its efficacy as a store and provider of morality in many parts of the world, it still provides necessary psychological support for large numbers of humans. The leaders of major Western democracies continue to need to put themselves forward as practising Christians, regardless of their true beliefs. And the outraged reaction to Richard Dawkins' The God Delusion, published in 2006, much of it no doubt hypocritical, shows that religion is still a no-go area for social reformers.

The picture will look very different by 2030, and religion can be assumed to have a rapidly diminishing contribution to make to human culture during the first half of the 21st century. It is important to stress, as ever, that ethics and morality need to have a very high profile in human life; it is simply that they will be delivered in other ways.

Politics

'Politics' was defined in Chapter Five for the purposes of this book as the 'governance' of a country (or a region or indeed the whole world): the tasks which are subject to the political process include the making and upholding of laws, including the legislature and the judiciary; the raising of taxes and debt; the formation and carrying out of spending programmes; issuance and maintenance of a currency; defence; the conduct of an administration; the provision of services including education, health, welfare and pensions.

Judged against these criteria, global political activity is at an early stage of development, and among formal global organizations it looks more like nation state competition than the expression of global political ideas. Most international organizations are oligarchic rather than democratic, thus not needing - and they don't display - political behaviour. The IOC is a good example.

Organisations such as the WTO, the UN, the WHO, the IMF, and the World Bank attract political activity on the part of their member states, or sometimes (a bit more global) on the part of regional groupings of states. Thus, organisations grouping the 'non-developed' or the 'non-aligned' or the 'Caribbean' states have political roles in the formation of policy at a multilateral level.

However, politics addressed to electors hardly exists at a global level except perhaps in the EU where it is just beginning. For true global political activity one has to look to the emergence of popular global movements.

'Popular' organizations such as Greenpeace, greens in general, and environmentalists in general have global messages to deliver, and global support. Anti-globalisers are probably a popular global movement, although their ideas are so muddled that it is hard to put a meaningful label on them.

'Popular' doesn't have to mean soft left. It is to be expected that global organizations will develop to work on behalf of shareholders, consumers, students, and other groups. There is every reason to think that such organizations will come to have rule-making and even judicial powers in the same way as producer groups, although as in so many other sectors, it will take the demolition of language barriers before truly popular, global, political organizations emerge.

Copyright 2005-2009 M G Bell. The material contained on this site is the intellectual property of M G Bell and may not be reproduced, transmitted or copied by any means including photocopying or electronic transmission, without his express written permission.