The Futures Of The Human Race
A book by Michael Godfrey Bell

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BOOK ONE: 2007 - GLOBALIZATION

Chapter One: Economic Globalization

 

 

Introduction

Exchange In Early Groups

Trade: Genetic or Cultural?

The Beginnings of Trade

Trade Before Law

The Advantages Of Free Trade

The Economic Weapons Of Nationalism

The Market Fights Back

The Global 'Multilateral' Economic Organizations

Regional International Economic Bodies

Sectoral International Economic Groupings

Disintermediation: The Growth Of International
Financial Markets

 

 


Introduction

This chapter will chart the history of trade and the broader economy to which it gave birth, first as an aspect of the life of early human social groups, and later as the advance-guard of economic nationalism. It will show how, after a relatively short period during which nation states attempted with scant success to take over or directly supervize trading mechanisms, the market is now reasserting itself through the process of economic globalization, in the process creating multiple opportunities for individuals to invest and trade with far greater freedom than previously.

The term 'globalization' in the early 21st century carries with it a sense that separate, national polities are somehow being homogenized into a standard 'global' brand. In terms of economic life at any rate it would be more accurate to say that it amounts to the removal of national barriers imposed on a previously unimpeded global market-place.

It's likely that many people think of trade as being one of the 'highest' achievements of humans. That it is a force for good is beyond doubt: it adds to the material wealth of the parties who trade, it spreads knowledge about cultural artefacts and even the cultures which produce them, and it diminishes the chance of aggression between trading partners. But far from being a result of the civilizing process, evolutionary, anthropological and paleological work is making it more and more likely that trade was a main cause of that process. An extreme view would be that it was a necessary precursor of settled human life in the tribal group. At the minimum it is hard to imagine the successful development of inter-group relationships in the early stages of human civilisation without the benign and informing influence of trade.

Matt Ridley 1 says that trade, specialization, the division of labour and sophisticated systems of barter exchange were already part of a hunter-gathering life, and that they had probably been so for many hundreds of thousands or even millions of years: 'It is possible that homo erectus was mining stone tools at specialized quarries, presumably for export, 1.4 million years ago.'

Kropotkin 2 sets out the case for the groupish origins of trading and markets, with special relevance to German and Eastern European models, suggesting that the merchant guild was initially entrusted with commerce on behalf of the whole community, and only gradually became a group of merchants trading on their own account.

Regardless of the origins of trade, for most economists, trade, and especially free trade, is associated with economic growth; and the globalization (freeing) of trade which has been taking place in the last 50 years has had highly beneficial effects on the populations of the countries that have participated in it. Jagdish Bhagwati 3 states unequivocally that freer trade is associated with higher growth and that higher growth is associated with reduced poverty.

It's a very noticeable fact that many successful international bodies of law have to do with trade. The WTO, the International Chamber of Commerce, international maritime treaties, Free Trade Agreements (EFTA and then the EU), NAFTA, and many other organizations and treaties are essentially commercial in their origins and effects, and by and large they are welcomed by all nations, who more or less willingly submit to their jurisdiction. Attempts at political, ecological and social international co-operation have often been bitterly disputacious and slower to come into effect, although later chapters will show that even in those fields globalization is marching forwards.

From a groupish perspective, this situation can be summed up quite neatly: groups are xenophobic except when it comes to exchange, when they become cooperative.

Exchange In Early Groups

It is reasonable to see exchange in primate groups and later in human groups as the precursor of trade. Exchange is driven by reciprocity, which originated before humans evolved, perhaps in primate groups, or perhaps earlier. Among chimpanzees, food sharing is prevalent. Males exchange food for social benefits, including sex with receptive females, and appear to have deliberately constructed the exchanges.

Ridley describes research carried out by Frans de Waal 4 at the Yerkes Primate Center in Atlanta, in which reciprocity is the order of the day: 'If A often gives foliage to B, then B will often give to A. There is a pattern of turn-taking: A is more likely to give food to B if B has groomed A recently, but not if A has done the grooming favour. A chimp will punish another that has been stingy by attacking it.' To de Waal all this implies that chimpanzees possess a concept of trade.

Hunter-gatherer tribes display the same behaviour, but on an expanded canvas. Individuals choose to kill large animals which are far beyond the capacity of themselves or their immediate family to consume, with the purpose of exchanging the surplus meat for a variety of social goods, including prestige, sex, expectation of future food, repayment of past favours, payment in advance for future favours, and so on.

Says Ridley: 'I do not believe it is too far-fetched to see in the actions of hunter-gatherers distant echoes of the origins of modern markets in financial derivatives'. According to Hill and Kaplan 5 the hunter is entering into a contract to swap the variable rate return on his hunting effort for a more nearly fixed return rate achieved by his whole group.

Trade: Genetic or Cultural?

In other words, was trade one of the features of early human groups which developed during the period before instruments of cultural transmission evolved (primarily spoken or symbolic language), meaning that the propensity to trade is genetically encoded; or was trade a 'social' or 'cultural' development, passed from generation to generation by example or teaching? Or are both mechanisms involved?

The existence of reciprocity (reciprocal altruism) in humans is not in doubt: individuals receiving generous treatment from others they will not meet again nevertheless respond generously to them in return. Unfair behaviour is also repaid in kind, without any apparent future advantage being gained. Paul Seabright describes experiments by Ernst Fehr at the University of Zurich 6 which seem to establish beyond doubt that reciprocity is instinctive (genetically encoded). This conclusion has been confirmed by many subsequent experiments.

It's difficult to know whether reciprocity was or was not adaptive at first as between the members of a group and the external individuals with whom they came into contact. Given that in the early stages of human development, most non-group visitors are enemies, it might be thought that it would be non-adaptive in such encounters. But then there would be no trade, evidently, and a group which trades is eventually fitter than a group that does not trade.

Seabright 7 says: 'Reciprocity has also mattered in the history of humanity because it has enabled hunter-gatherer bands to take the first cautious steps toward conducting exchange with strangers (such contacts occurred, as we have seen, well before the adoption of agriculture).'

It's no surprise then that reciprocity (which evolved within the group in order to cement personal relationships) would have been involved in permitting external trade; a visitor with good intentions may have used mimicry to appear friendly, obtaining a reciprocal result, after which trade is possible. It's also possible that reciprocity evolved within the group as much as to foster exchange (of which trade is merely a special case) as to encourage individual relationships.

There is therefore fairly strong evidence that genetic reciprocity is a basis for trade, but that doesn't answer the question of whether trade (exchange) is somehow genetically encoded, or just the reprocity.

Ulrich Witt 8 adduces von Mises in support of a general human propensity to trade. Von Mises believed that being alert in looking out for new possibilities and advantages is a general feature of 'homo agens'. For Mises, says Witt, entrepreneurship is a trait possessed by many.

The balance of opinion seems to be that the propensity to exchange is indeed an evolved, genetic adaptation, carrying with it the idea of comparative value, although the forms of modern commerce and the institution of money (stores of value) are no doubt cultural constructs. And it was trade which paved the way for constructive relations between tribes which would otherwise have been enemies, or at least, worse enemies than without trade.

The Beginnings of Trade

Archeological evidence suggests but does not prove that trade took place between human groups of homo erectus prior to the emergence of homo sapiens, in other words between 1.4 million years ago and roughly 300,000 years ago. These groups were kin-groups with a hunter-gatherer and sometimes nomadic life-style.

It is tempting to suppose that the gradual expansion of homo erectus from its African home to coverage of most of Europe and Asia would have created many demands for trade. If a sub-group splits off from a group whose current territory includes a stone quarry (for axe-heads) and migrates to an area where game is plentiful but there are no quarries, it is easy to see that a trading network will come into existence to maintain the supply of axe-heads to the sub-group.

Sharp 9 describes the Stone Age Yir Yoront tribe living in the north of Australia, who trade (or used to trade) sting-ray barbs for stone axes produced 400 miles to the south, through a long line of intermediate tribes.

Among surviving Stone-Age tribal cultures, division of labour seems to take place to a marked degree even within an area in which groups are in constant touch with one another, and even in the absence of environmental features to drive it. Groups which develop and practise different skills will inevitably need to trade with each other; the suggestion here is that the propensity to trade may be the cause rather than the result of division of labour, with the benefit being a more harmonious, or at least less bloodthirsty system of communal inter-group alliances. Matt Ridley calls trade 'the beneficent side of human groupishness'.

The trust that is displayed in reciprocal exchanges, especially when the second half of an exchange is deferred, owes much to its origins within the kin-group, to the extent that putative trading partners often attempt to find a basis of trust by exploring possible relationships, even if distant ones. Although this behaviour is most marked in tribes which have not departed far from the kin-group model, it is an everyday occurrence among modern humans, who eagerly seize upon any basis for relationship with people they meet, such as common friends or common origins (membership of the same group, in other words) and feel much reassured when such a relationship is found. While this doesn't damage the concept of reciprocity, it does emphasize the extent to which group membership is helpful in creating the trust needed for successful trading.

Healey 10 studied Kundagai Maring trading patterns in Papua New Guinea showing that among un-related traders, immediate exchange took place 483 times as against 35 cases of delayed exchange, while among related traders, there were 697 cases of delayed exchange as against 71 cases of immediate exchange. Healey notes: 'The search for kinship ties between erstwhile strangers introduces moral principles that should obtain between the parties'.

As explained in the Introduction, those who practised trade in early human kin-groups certainly understood it as a group activity, or if you wish, an activity undertaken on behalf of the group, or between groups. This was the prevailing cultural model of trade until very recently, and is certainly how it was thought about by mediaeval traders in the guild system. Although to the modern mind trading often presents itself first and foremost as an individual activity, its communal origins can be seen preserved in joint corporate forms and partnerships. This is important to an understanding of why trading can be conducted very satisfactorily under a rule-based international order, and of why nation states have more often been the enemy rather than the friend of traders.

Trade Before Law

That sounds topsy-turvy to modern minds; it is commonly thought, even by free-traders, that trade can only flourish where the rule of law has been established, as in 'Trade follows the flag'. The reality is almost exactly the reverse, as the colonial histories of European nation states demonstrate: the East India Company is just one of dozens of examples of private enterprise based on trade which were later subsumed by nation states as the basis of colonies.

It has been so throughout recorded history. The example of the Yanomamo quoted in the Introduction demonstrates how trade leads to political alliances rather than following from them; and the same can be observed in the development of merchant guilds in mediaeval Europe under the Hansa regime (see, again, the Introduction).

By the time of the colonial trading companies, which had their heyday in the 17th and 18th centuries, the State had become much more powerful, and easily took over their private activities when it chose to do so, mostly during the 19th century. The State as it developed between approximately 1600 and 1900 also took over the legal systems which the traders had developed, as it would later take over education and the provision of other social goods. However, as will be seen below, globalization has undermined the nation state and has given a new lease of life to independent (private) commercial law.

The Advantages Of Free Trade

Although the division of labour is an evolutionary innovation that predates humankind (for instance among ants and bees), it was humans who first developed the practice of division of labour between groups. Groups of ants or other animal species may fight each other, but only human groups co-operate, and the possibility for this rests squarely upon the groupish propensity to exchange allied to reciprocal altruism.

The division of labour between groups that led to or was driven by trade 300,000 or more years ago was perfectly in accord with Ricardo's Law of Comparative Advantage, which says at its simplest that each group should do only what it is best at, and rely on trade for everything else it needs. The relative competence of a group may be assisted or constrained by its environment (raw materials etc), but even on a completely level playing field two groups will collectively achieve the best result if each one becomes a specialist in a particular technique, rather than trying to compete against each other. This is the basic argument for free trade.

Free trade didn't have to evolve as such, because Ricardo's Law stands even in the absence of human beings; but human groups evolved in such a way as to be able to take advantage of the Law. However the practice of free trade has been distorted in modern times by the nation state, which is driven by the desire to increase its own power, or by the short-sightedness of a narrow merchantilist class which appeals to that power for protection against the market (representing groupish human nature). This is of course one of the key messages of Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations.

The Economic Weapons Of Nationalism

'Crony capitalism' neatly sums up the common view of how countries often approach economic activity. For the unreformed robber baron state, business is a source of revenue, an instrument of policy, and a means of rewarding its servants.

European monarchs and their governments from the 15th to the 17th centuries routinely created licensing or taxation regimes to extract revenue from trade and business activity. Then there was (and is) seignorage, the profits to be had from management of currencies. The heads of licensed monopolies were seldom appointed for their skill in managing commercial activity, but almost always as a reward for services in another direction. As a result, economic activity was less efficient and rewarding than it could have been if carried out in a free market.

The 18th century brought enlightenment, with the work of such great economic rationalists as David Ricardo and Adam Smith, resulting in a stupendous economic leap forward for most of the nations of Europe and their colonies. However the 19th century saw the arrival of social, doctrinal and political agendas for governments: the State began to assume responsibility for the regulation of economic affairs and not just to use or abuse business on a pragmatic basis.

Mercantilism led to the erection of trade barriers,socialism led to the State take-over of large tranches of most economies, and dirigisme led to their mis-management. By mid-20th century, in most countries more than 50% of the economy was being throttled in this way; in the 'command' economy countries such as the USSR, that figure was close to 100%.

The Market Fights Back

The second half of the 20th century saw the rebirth of economic liberalism to a greater or smaller extent in almost all countries. On a national level, privatisation was a key mechanism for returning economic activity to the market; internationally, organisations were created or developed to guide and manage the conduct of trade and business away from the hands of national governments.

It is difficult to say why exactly this process started when it did. Perhaps a growing, evidence-based understanding of the nature of the market helped; perhaps the acceleration of international communications started to bypass national markets; or perhaps the rise of the multinational simply cut national governments out of the chain.

By the year 2000, most sectors of the world economy had been mostly liberated. Here are some of the instruments of their freedom (there is a much fuller list of international economic organisations in Appendix I):

The GATT, later the World Trade Organization

The OECD

The IMF

(these three are termed the 'Bretton Woods' institutions)

The Basle Agreement

The World Bank

Although in many cases - notably the 'Bretton Woods' multilaterals - it was leading nation states who set them up, it is no longer accurate to think of them as being in any meaningful sense the instruments of their progenitors. The reasons for this are complex, and not the same for each individual organisation (see below). But the results are the same: that to a large degree, nation states have lost their power over the dimensions of economic activity controlled by the 'multilateral' in each case.

Although the United States, with its immense economic wealth, has been able to stymie some aspects of the work of the 'globalizing' multilaterals in response to domestic protectionist pressures, nonetheless its internationalist instincts have usually prevailed in the end. And the hostile response of other countries to the occasionally selfish behaviour of the USA itself demonstrates a general underlying belief in the construction of a rational international economic order, even if it is often cloaked in nationalistic language.

Alongside the liberalization of economic governance, most individual economic sectors have also been undergoing a process of 'marketization' during the last 50 years, combining privatization with globalization. Of all the sectors, the most important, because of its essential role in all other sectors, is the financial industry. There is not space here to analyze the spread of the multinationals in energy, mining, transport, electronics and other sectors; and this process has been widely described elsewhere so that its outcome - a pattern of globalized manufacture and distribution that bypasses national boundaries - is not in doubt.

In the remainder of this chapter, we will first analyze the institutions of global economic governance listed above, along with some of the regional and sectoral governance bodies that are growing up, and finally we will consider the globalization of finance, and what this may mean for the future global polity.

The Global 'Multilateral' Economic Organizations

The World Trade Organization

The WTO (given much fuller treatment in a subsequent chapter, as arguably the most important, albeit the smallest, of all the international economic organisations) has existed as such only from 1995, but it had evolved by degrees out of the GATT (General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs), founded in 1947 as a forum for negotiating lower customs duty rates and other trade barriers. The text of the General Agreement spelt out important rules, particularly non-discrimination, and the major trading nations which signed up to the GATT contracted to obey those rules.

The GATT, updated in 1995 when the WTO was founded, has become the WTO’s umbrella agreement for trade in goods. It has annexes dealing with specific sectors such as agriculture and textiles, and with specific issues such as state trading, product standards, subsidies and actions taken against dumping.

Possibly it is unfair to say that nation states have been an incubus on the back of the market, given that it was just those monsters who created the WTO. But not all ministers shared the economic heresies of governments, then or now; and a small number of visionary figures among whom John Maynard Keynes and US Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau were two of the brightest stars, were able to persuade governments to go along with the GATT. Had they realised what they were letting themselves in for, they might have put up more resistance! Little by little, the GATT and the WTO have come to dominate world trade in goods. It is true that the Doha Round seems very shaky as of early 2007; but the momentum for progress is still there, even if much of it may be by way of bilateral deals in the short term.

The other two Bretton Woods institutions were the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (now known as the World Bank), and the International Monetary Fund. Significantly, Henry Morgenthau told the conference that the establishment of the Bretton Woods institutions marked the end of economic nationalism; and so it has proved.

The summary of agreements from July 22, 1944 states: "The nations should consult and agree on international monetary changes which affect each other. They should outlaw practices which are agreed to be harmful to world prosperity, and they should assist each other to overcome short-term exchange difficulties."

Although neither the IMF nor the World Bank (or its regional cousins such as the EBRD) has quite fulfilled the intentions of their founders, that is to say, they have not been the instruments through which the allied 'western' nations could impose economic stability on the world economic order, they have nonetheless achieved substantial power internationally, the IMF perhaps more than the World Bank.

The International Monetary Fund

The IMF and its advisory sibling the OECD are the standard-bearers of economic orthodoxy. It is arguable that the IMF, whose primary stated purpose was exchange rate management, lost its way after the system of fixed exchange rates broke down under the weight of economic forces in the 1970s.

The IMF's own (modernized) 'mission statement' is: 'The IMF is an organization of 184 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty.'

Paradoxically, the nation states which fund the IMF probably see it as actively helpful towards their individual economic well-being; whereas the reality is that it forms part of a developing global carapace of regulation whose clutches individual member states are no longer able to escape. From this aspect, the crucial work of the IMF is standard-setting, an activity shared by all of the 'multilaterals', including also the World Bank and the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision on a fiduciary level and the OECD in fiscal affairs, to mention just the most prominent of global economic standard-setting bodies.

The IMF has also given its name to a Code of Conduct that emerged from persistent sovereign debt crises: The Principles for Stable Capital Flows and Fair Debt Restructuring in Emerging Markets. This was formulated in 2004 between the representatives of emerging market countries and private sector creditors 11 .

The future of the IMF is problematic, and it may not survive the first half of the 21st century as an independent institution. It has played a useful part in helping the development of sound fiscal regimes in many 1st, 2nd and 3rd world countries, but its task is nearly done.

The World Bank

Like the IMF, the World Bank has also metamorphosed from its original conception: set up as a source of funds to underpin the reconstruction of a battered Europe, it has become an instrument of international do-goodery, heavily focused on developing economies, poverty and the environment. If you want, it forms a part of the conscience of the first world. No doubt this is a valuable role, although many question the World Bank's methods. From a globaliser's perspective, however, what is significant about the World Bank is its involvement as noted above in standard-setting, particularly in association with the IMF, under the general rubric of the 'Bank/Fund Initiative on Standards and Codes'.

As for the IMF, the future of the World Bank is likely to be troubled, and it may find itself without an intervention role in due time. Its rule-making role would then probably be subsumed into another institution, or it might be transformed (once again!) into a different type of organization.

Says Ngaire Woods 12 : 'The challenge for the IMF and the World Bank . . . . is economic policy made in a more transparent, openly contested, publicly debated, and democratic way. That process is likely to be messy, complex and time-consuming; it will often thwart rapid reform, and it will certainly marginalize the role of the IMF and the World Bank.'

The OECD

The OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) is an organization which has power and influence out of all proportion to its size. Like the Bretton Woods bodies, it was founded after WWII as the Organisation for European Economic Co-operation, in order to administer American and Canadian aid under the Marshall Plan for the reconstruction of Europe after World War II. It transmogrified into the OECD in 1961, and has been described as 'an international organisation of those developed countries that accept the principles of representative democracy and a free market economy'. It has 30 members, including all of the major economic powers other than Russia and China.

The OECD describes its global ambitions thus: 'After more than four decades, the OECD is moving beyond a focus on its own countries and is setting its analytical sights on those countries - today nearly the whole world - that embrace the market economy.'

The changing role of the OECD does not however affect its potency as a standard-setter, particularly in fiscal matters and through its subsidiary the FATF (Financial Action Task Force) in the area of financial transparency (money laundering, to be more blunt). Although it consists directly of only 30 members, compared with the 150 in the WTO and the 184 in the IMF, its members' domination of the world economy ensure that its writ runs wide.

Of course this raises the question of national versus regional or global government. The European Parliament and the European Commission have got quite a lot to say about this subject, not to mention the US Congress and the national parliaments of European nations and the Japanese Diet. But the straw is there, hanging in the wind. A multinational company, swapping its executives between countries on a weekly basis and with 200,000 employees in 50 countries, would be only too happy to see, for instance, one international code of practice for its pensions provision. Who can doubt that one day, the OECD (or one of its competitors, the World Bank, say) will become the chosen instrument of national legislatures to come up with a set of 'pension guidelines', which after five years will become a 'Code', and in 10 years will be 'Regulations' with grandfather clauses, sunset dates and all the rest?

Regional International Economic Bodies

The OECD was in its origins sectoral rather than global; but its reach is now global. Other geographically delimited rule-making bodies which cannot claim global reach include a number of supra-national groupings such as the European Union, NAFTA (North American Free Trade Area), CAFTA (Central American Free Trade Area), APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Community), Mercosur and Caricom. Among these the EU comes closest to having real extra-territorial power through pacts such as the Lome Convention (aid to developing countries) and its clout in standard-setting negotiations in such areas as telecommunications and environmental initiatives. Political aspects of the European Union, along with equivalent organizations CARICOM and APEC are dealt with in Chapter Three: Globalization of Politics.

As economic actors, each of these regional groupings has real power over its component member states. It is a commonplace that the EU, with a formidable legal apparatus in the European Court of Justice, has diminished the capacity for independent action of its member states over a wide range of economic fields. Even in taxation, one of the 'red lines' which EU competences are supposedly not allowed to cross, recent rulings of the Commission over state aid and 'level playing field' judgements of the ECJ over dividend taxation, VAT and corporation tax have started to put severe limits to the freedom of action of national tax authorities.

It seems highly likely that there will come to be a common corporation tax base in the EU within the next ten years, although rate-setting itself will remain a national prerogative for a long time to come. The VAT regime is already 90% harmonized, and there is a (quite high) minimum VAT rate of 15% across the Union.

Free trade areas such as NAFTA are more limited in their scope than the EU, of course, but they still put substantial limits to national powers in the areas in which they apply. NAFTA competencies include the elimination of barriers to trade, the promotion of fair competition in the free trade area, the development of investment opportunities, and the protection and enforcement of intellectual property rights. To this end, NAFTA's secretariat (the equivalent of the European Commission) is empowered to create effective procedures for the implementation and application of the Agreement, for its joint administration and for the resolution of disputes. So it has a quasi-judicial function which has supremacy over national judicial procedures.

NAFTA itself is complemented by further ancillary agreements, including the North American Agreement for Environmental Cooperation (NAAEC) and the North American Agreement on Labor Cooperation (NAALC).

NAAEC established the North American Commission for Environmental Cooperation (NACEC), a mechanism for addressing trade and environmental issues, the North American Development Bank for assisting and financing investments in pollution reduction and the Border Environmental Cooperation Commission (BECC).

NAALC aims to create a framework for the resolution of labor problems, and is thought to have been partly responsible for an acknowledged convergence of labor standards in North America.

This is an example of what might be called regulatory creep, which is a marked characteristic of all international rule-making or rule-enforcing bodies. They are pushing at an open door, in fact, because any national legislative body which attempts to create extra-territorial jurisdiction immediately runs up against a storm of protest from other countries concerned. Though one must note that the US Congress does not always seem unduly held back by such considerations!

Sectoral International Economic Groupings

Important as are the trade-related groupings discussed above, for a business operating in almost any international economic sector, there is likely to be a sectoral global body with substantial rule-making powers which will have a far greater impact on its operations.

Thus for banking there is the Basle-based Bank for International Settlements, for telecommunications there is the ITU (International Telecommunications Union), for airlines there is IATA, and so forth. For businesses engaged in international trade, in almost any sector, the International Chamber of Commerce is likely to loom large.

There is an analysis of many of these organizations at Appendix I. Here it will suffice to study just a few of them briefly, to see how far they go in terms of making and applying rules to their members. They are, by the way, and not incidentally, almost exclusively monopolies. It is an interesting fact that while combinations of actual businesses fall under the spotlight of hyper-active competition authorities in almost all parts of the world, no authority or mechanism exists to limit or control the behaviour of these sectoral regulatory organisations. It may be said (they would say) that they are democratically run by their members. Even if that is true, which it may be in some cases, Adam Smith had plenty to say about the likely behaviour of combinations of businessmen, and they have not changed their spots! In reality, many of these organizations are run as self-perpetuating oligarchies. This is an aspect of globalization which makes democrats and market liberals queasy. It is discussed more fully in Chapter 8, The Future of the State.

The International Chamber of Commerce

The ICC was founded in 1919 to promote trade and investment, open markets for goods and services, and the free flow of capital. During WWII, ICC transferred its operations to neutral Sweden.

ICC activities cover a broad spectrum, from arbitration and dispute resolution to making the case for open trade and the market economy system, business self-regulation, fighting corruption or combating commercial crime. The ICC International Court of Arbitration was founded in 1923. Since 1999, the Court has received new cases at a rate of more than 500 a year. The ICC is far from having a monopoly in arbitration, however: other centres, including London and Stockholm have set up flourishing arbitration courts which rival the ICC in Paris.

ICC's Uniform Customs and Practice for Documentary Credits (UCP 500) are the rules that banks apply to finance billions of dollars worth of world trade every year.

ICC Incoterms are standard international trade definitions used every day in countless thousands of contracts. ICC model contracts make life easier for small companies that cannot afford big legal departments.

The ICC sees itself as a pioneer in business self-regulation and the regulation of e-commerce. ICC codes on advertising and marketing are frequently reflected in national legislation and the codes of professional associations.

The Bank For International Settlements (BIS)

BIS, based in Basle in Switzerland, describes itself as an international organisation which fosters international monetary and financial cooperation and serves as a bank for central banks. It has 55 member central banks.

The BIS came to the fore as an international regulator after oil and debt crises in the 1970's, emerging as the leader in developing regulatory supervision of internationally active banks. The collapse in 1974 of Bankhaus Herstatt in Germany and of the Franklin National Bank in the US prompted the G10 central bank Governors to set up the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision; the result was the 1988 Basel Capital Accord and its "Basel II " revision of 2001-06.

In November 2005, the Committee issued an updated version of the revised Basel Framework incorporating the additional guidance set forth in the Committee's paper The Application of Basel II to Trading Activities and the Treatment of Double Default Effects (July 2005). On 4 July 2006, the Committee issued a comprehensive version of the Basel II Framework.

The extreme complexity of modern capital markets defies the wit of ordinary parliamentarians, and it is probably inescapable that capital standards for lending institutions should be set by an arcane expert process. More, the highly evolved international ramifications and interconnections of the banking system make it unavoidable that there should be only one measurement system for capitalization. And hey presto, you have your globalized banking supervision system. There will be no turning back!

The International Telecommunications Union (ITU)

The first International Telegraph Convention was signed in Paris in 1865 by 20 founding members, and when the International Telegraph Union (ITU) was established to facilitate subsequent amendments to this initial agreement, it began, in its own words, to draw up international legislation governing telephony.

In 1947 the ITU became a specialized agency of the United Nations. At the same time, the International Frequency Registration Board (IFRB) was established to coordinate the increasingly complicated task of managing the radio-frequency spectrum; in the same year, the Table of Frequency Allocations, introduced in 1912, was declared mandatory. Radio frequency disputes are dealt with internationally through ITU mechanisms.

Under the Constitution of the International Telecommunication Union, its purposes include:

  • To harmonize the actions of Member States and promote fruitful and constructive cooperation and partnership between Member States and Sector Members in the attainment of those ends;
  • To promote, at the international level, the adoption of a broader approach to the issues of telecommunications in the global information economy and society, by cooperating with other world and regional intergovernmental organizations and those non-governmental organizations concerned with telecommunications.

The ITU also established the World Telecommunication Policy Forum (WTPF), which has worked on policy-making for global mobile personal communications by satellite, on trade in telecommunication services, and on Internet Protocol (IP).

From an economic perspective, the ITU exercises highly developed control over multiple aspects of pricing and tariff-setting. It has published some hundreds of 'recommendations' on tariff issues.

The ITU is making attempts to assume responsibility for the management of Internet Domain Names and addresses, something that has so far been resisted by the Internet industry. Says the ITU: 'Given ITU’s role in the development of IP standards and protocols for IP-based networks, the (ITU) called for greater partnerships with Internet standardization organizations, governments, private sector and for a greater outreach to developing countries.'

Other than its role in radio frequency dispute resolution, the ITU has not acquired much responsibility for telecommunications dispute resolution, which is performed by a variety of organizations, including WIPO, Arbitration Courts in London, Stockholm and other places, the ICC, and the WTO, not of course forgetting national court systems. However the ITU does devote a great deal of attention to dispute resolution issues through its publications and events. It may be expected that as time goes by the ITU will acquire an expanded role in dispute resolution.

For a company operating in almost any aspect of telecommunications, it is fair to regard the ITU as its most prominent regulator in terms of the number and scope of rules and standards to which it must adhere. Certainly, there are national telecommunications regulators, and for European operators there is the EU; but important as these are on some major policy issues, they are comprehensively overshadowed by the ITU in terms of the regulation of day-to-day operations.

ISO (International Organization for Standardization)

The ISO, with 157 national members, is the world's largest developer of standards. Although ISO's principal activity is the development of technical standards, ISO says that its standards also have important economic and social repercussions. 'ISO standards make a positive difference, not just to engineers and manufacturers for whom they solve basic problems in production and distribution, but to society as a whole.'

Although ISO standards are voluntary, they may become a market requirement, as has happened in the case of ISO 9000 quality management systems, or of dimensions of freight containers and bank cards.

The ISO - together with IEC (International Electrotechnical Commission) and ITU (International Telecommunication Union) - has built a strategic partnership with the WTO (World Trade Organization) with the common goal of promoting a free and fair global trading system. Says the ISO: 'The political agreements reached within the framework of the WTO require underpinning by technical agreements. ISO, IEC and ITU, as the three principal organizations in international standardization, have the complementary scopes, the framework, the expertise and the experience to provide this technical support for the growth of the global market.'

Although the ISO does not overtly attempt to make ethical or societal rules, its importance in the globalization process is very clear. Labelling, health and safety, and environmental issues are some of the areas in which its 'technical' standards must necessarily confront or even establish prevailing social standards. Already, it would be meaningless to talk about a national technical standard in the face of the ISO's over-arching competence, and it is difficult to see why a country would want to try. The histories of mobile phones and video recorders provide two examples of why global technical standards are both inevitable and even desirable.

The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)

WIPO is dedicated to developing a balanced and accessible international intellectual property (IP) system. It was established by the WIPO Convention in 1967 with a mandate from its Member States to promote the protection of IP throughout the world through cooperation among states and in collaboration with other international organizations. Its headquarters are in Geneva, Switzerland.

WIPO treaties are normally implemented through national law. For instance, the WIPO Copyright Treaty is implemented in United States law by the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, while in the EU Directives 91/250/EC, creating copyright protection for software and 96/9/EC for database protection and the Copyright Directive 2001/29/EC prohibiting devices for circumventing "technical protection measures" such as digital rights management largely cover the subject matter of the treaty.

WIPO was instrumental in bringing about the Agreement on Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) which sets down minimum standards for forms of intellectual property (IP) regulation. The administration of TRIPS falls under WTO rule, and countries joining the WTO have to sign up to TRIPS.

Disintermediation: The Growth Of International Financial Markets

The mere fact of the existence of the Bretton Woods institutions testifies to the mid-20th century view of the financial sector as being a department of government. This statist political doctrine was most clearly evidenced in the Soviet Union, but also underlay the behaviour of western nation states. When countries didn't actually nationalize banks, insurance companies and other types of financial institution, they nonetheless wrapped them up in a cocoon of regulation, almost entirely behind national boundaries.

Who now remembers capital controls in Europe? But in the 1960s, if you wanted to take money from, say, France, to England, you had to put it in your shoes. Would any young student of economics in 2010 believe without being told that in 1960 it was against the law to own gold in most of the countries of Europe? One of the really good things the European Union has done, with the herlp of the World Trade Organization, is to open capital markets. The explosion of world trade in the last 60 years (see Chapter 6) is due in no small measure to capital markets liberalization.

An incidental consequence of the financial and fiscal straitjacket imposed by countries on their citizens and their companies in the first half of the 20th century was the creation of 'offshore'. Switzerland grew fat on the savings of French and Germans which they hastened to transport across their national borders to the care of a regime that wasn't going to steal it as soon as possible. Jersey, Bermuda and other jurisdictions performed a similar service for the UK. The phenomenon of 'offshore' is explored in greater depth in Chapter 4 (Fiscal Globalization), but it needs to be mentioned here as one of the instruments of financial liberalization. While it's true that economic liberals came into ascendancy in the 1970s, and influenced the behaviour of many governments in the 1980s, leading finally to the death of the Soviet Union and other obnoxious regimes, their task was made much easier by the existence of an alternative financial system that was already feared by rich country governments. Feared indeed to such an extent that in the 1990s the left-leaning finance ministers of the OECD launched an all-out attack on 'offshore' - ultimately unsuccessful - in defence of their ability to tax the living daylights out of citizens and companies alike.

The amazing growth of global (meaning, not national) financial markets is a key aspect of the march away from national economies towards one global economy, but is not always seen in those terms.

Markers on the road include:

  • the explosive growth of the Euromarkets after the US foolishly imposed banking restrictions in the 1950s;
  • the frequent sovereign defaults (bankruptcies, really, but they don't like the word) between 1960 and 2000 (Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Argentina, to name some of the more prominent ones), leading to much enhanced power for the private sector vis-a-vis the sovereigns (think Brady bonds);
  • commodity market crises during the same period - admittedly not all of them national in character - including gold, silver, oil, paper and cocoa, usually due to producer-led cartel activity, and leading again to strengthened private sector market mechanisms;
  • the eventual abandonment of persistent attempts to establish fixed exchange rates (the last ones were the Plaza and Louvre Accords in the 1980s) and the concomitant freeing of international capital markets after a century or more of controls;
  • the securitization (the word could almost mean globalization) of one asset class after another, often through derivative markets, including sovereign debt (eg Brady bonds), mortgages, corporate debt, private credit card debt, commodities, equities, foreign exchange, interest streams, rent and leasehold income streams, culminating in the rise of hedge funds, which securitize simply everything.

By the end of the 20th century, public (ie, international) markets had become more powerful than all but the very largest nation states, financially speaking, and even the United States is effectively powerless to control the value of its own currency.

The internationalization of financial markets has been accompanied by a process of disintermediation and the growth of asset securitization. This is a sentence of rather big, ugly words, but all it means is the imposition of market (trading) disciplines, including transparency and rule-based governance on financial transactions. Whereas for most of the last 100 years, an investor needed to use a financial intermediary (often called a broker, and usually with a nationally-protected monopoly) to make investments into a usually opaque asset-owning fraternity (a recipe for fraud and profiteering), increasingly an investor now has direct access (often through the Internet) to disinterested third-party information about proposed investment targets, and can use transparent market processes actually to purchase assets. Perhaps this sounds ordinary in 2007, but 50 years ago it was anything but ordinary.

It can be difficult to discern the process of financial globalization at work amid the torrents of advertising, mountains of regulation and bewildering variety of financial products that nowadays assail us. But the end results can be confidently predicted: all providers of publicly-offered financial assets (banks, insurers, listed companies etc) will be regulated under global codes (even if these are delivered through national agencies); the assets themselves will be offered to buyers (investors) through transparent trading exchanges, most or all of which will eventually be electronic; any asset for sale will be described in detail and subject to rating by third party assesors; and of course the assets themselves will be held by independent custodians in de-materialized form.

This structure minimizes the chances of fraud or disinformation, and gives both the widest possible access to assets for investors and by the same token the widest possible distribution to offerors. Most assets will likely be offered in securitized form by investment funds, with direct access to underlying assets available only to 'insiders', who are presumed not to need protection from themselves.

This is not far from being the case already for 'widows and orphans' products such as mutual funds (unit trusts) and shares offered on bigger stock exchanges. The result is to reduce transaction risk and cost to the absolute minimum (in an ideal market both would be zero), leaving asset risk isolated and as highly visible as possible so that the investor can make the most informed judgement possible.

The regulatory separation between 'ordinary' (public) and 'insider' transactions already exists in respect of many types of financial transaction. It may be that as the regulatory demands proliferate on providers of public assets, many asset-owners will choose to offer their wares only through securitized channels or direct to insiders. The overhead involved in making public offers will simply be too great for all but the largest providers. On the other hand, the Internet makes direct communication with investors easier, so it is not completely clear what balance will emerge.

There are a number of international organizations bringing global coherence to the financial services sector.

The International Securities Services Association

The ISSA was formed in 1979 in order to create an organisation able to collect and disseminate information on the developments in the rapidly changing international securities markets, and on the other hand to offer securities operations professionals a forum to exchange ideas and issues of common interest.

As early as 1988 ISSA published the ISSA 4 recommendations that helped pave the way for many of the G30 recommendations of 1989. ISSA also monitored the progress on the G30 recommendations over the years, and finally issued its own fully revised ISSA Recommendations 2000.

In 2004 The Group of Thirty (G30) mandated ISSA to monitor 5 of the recommendations in its January 2003 report "Global Clearing and Settlement: A Plan of Action."

The International Swaps and Derivatives Association

ISDA, which represents participants in the privately negotiated derivatives industry, is the largest global financial trade association, by number of member firms. ISDA was chartered in 1985, and today has over 750 member institutions from 52 countries on six continents. These members include most of the world's major institutions that deal in privately negotiated derivatives, as well as many of the businesses, governmental entities and other end users that rely on over-the-counter derivatives to manage efficiently the financial market risks inherent in their core economic activities.

ISDA's 2005 Novation Protocol offers parties to its various Master Agreements an efficient means to agree to a uniform process by which consents to transfer of interests in Credit Derivative Transactions and Interest Rate Transactions (Covered Transactions as defined in the Protocol) may be obtained.

The Financial Markets Association (ACI)

ACI was founded in France in 1955 following an agreement between foreign exchange dealers in Paris and London. In the years that followed, other national associations were formed and there are now affiliated financial markets associations in 65 countries and individual members in another 17 countries. ACI has the largest membership of any of the international associations in the wholesale financial markets. The Head Office is based in Paris. In 1975 the first ACI Code of Conduct covering foreign exchange and euro-currency dealing was published.

The scope of The Model Code is wide-ranging, encompassing the over-the-counter markets and instruments traded by international bank treasury departments. The official language of The Model Code is English.

Where the counterparties of a transaction are unable to resolve a dispute, the ACI Committee for Professionalism provides an Expert Determination Service in order to facilitate its resolution. Market participants are encouraged to avail themselves of this service in accordance with ACI Rules for Over-the-Counter Financial Instruments Disputes Resolution.

Summary

This Chapter has shown that in all but a few, minor respects, there is a comprehensive and largely benign trend towards regulation and supervision of economic activity at a global level. Even if some regulation is delivered through national laws or national branches of international organizations, the nation has in most cases little or no remaining power to influence the content of the regulation. Judicial fora involved in the enforcement of economic regulation and in dispute resolution are lagging a little behind rule-making and supervision, but are equally sure to take on global dimensions in the end.

It is also clear that the move away from 'managed' markets to open ones, which is a marked feature of economic globalization, much enhances access to economic activity on the part of individuals, whether alone or in groups, particularly with the assistance of the Internet.

Economics, perhaps because of the international nature of modern business, has seen more globalization than some other sectors of society. The two succeeding chapters will show however that cultural and political globalization is equally ongoing and eventually inevitable.

Footnotes:

1. Ridley, M (1996) The Origins of Virtue, Viking, New York

2. Kropotkin, P (1902) Mutual Aid, Heinemann, London

3. Bhagwati, J (2004) In Defense of Globalization, Oxford University Press

4. F B M de Waal, Journal of Human Evolution, 18: 433-459, 1989

5. Hill and Kaplan, Population and dry-season subsistence strategies of the recently contacted Yora of Peru, National Geographic Research, 5: 317-334

6. Fehr, E and Gachter, S (2000) Fairness and Retaliation: the Economics of Reciprocity, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14, pp 159-81

7. Seabright, P (2004) The Company of Strangers, Princeton University Press

8. Witt, U (1999) Do Entrepreneurs Need Firms? A Contribution to a Missing Chapter in Austrian Economics, The Review of Austrian Economics, 1999, 11, issue 1-2, pages 99-109

9. Sharp, L (XXXX) Steel Axes for Stone-Age Australians, Human Problems in Technological Change, pp 69-92, Russell Sage Foundation, New York

10. Healey, C (1984) Trade and Sociability: Balanced Reciprocity as Generosity in the New Guinea Highlands, American Ethnologist, 11, 42-60

11. Truman, E M, ed, (2006) Reforming The IMF For The 21st Century, Institute for International Economics, Washington

12. Woods, N (2006) The Globalizers - The IMF, the World Bank and Their Borrowers, Cornell University Press

 

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